Scientists are finally starting to come out of the closet on global warming and its consequences, according to this indepth new article on the subject on stuff.co.nz, entitled “Climate change forecast getting worse“.

Here are a few choice quotes:

In recent months, a cascade of new scientific evidence on climate change has made even mainstream scientists increasingly concerned about what lies ahead.

“Over the past few months in particular, knowledgeable scientists have got more concerned that there might not be just a gradual bit of warming, but there could be some more substantial and worrying things happen,” says Dr David Wratt, leader of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research’s national climate centre.

Among the public, many believe the main scientific debate is whether climate change is for real.

After all, American President George Bush is reluctant to address climate change, so perhaps there is something to what the sceptics say.

But for scientists, the caravan moved on some time ago. Now the most urgent question is not whether climate change is real, but how serious and rapid it will be, and whether it will soon be too late to do anything to stop it.

Look, let’s not argue over whether it is the result of carbon dioxide emissions, or whether it’s caused by human industry or cow farts - the fact of the matter is that it’s happening.

Don’t expect your puny human governments or your kept scientists to be able to protect you either.

Here’s what they have to say on the matter:

Until now the IPCC has assumed it would take thousands of years for even a few metres of sea-level rise. At that rate, humans, plants and animals would have plenty of time to adapt.

But new research is leading some scientists to suggest sea levels could rise over hundreds of years instead of thousands. Studies over the past two or three years have found ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula are rapidly disintegrating, and the edge of the Greenland Ice Sheet is melting. Other studies have observed rapid recession of Arctic sea ice.

Anyway, read more of the scientist’s speculation in the referenced article, and then ponder this little point that any geek can tell you - the weather system is chaotic. In fact it was the study of weather systems that first lead to the development of chaos theory. That means that it is a “nonlinear dynamical system that under certain conditions exhibits a phenomenon known as chaos, which is characterised by a sensitivity to initial conditions (see butterfly effect). As a result of this sensitivity, the behavior of systems that exhibit chaos appears to be random, even though the model of the system is deterministic in the sense that it is well defined and contains no random parameters. Examples of such systems include the atmosphere, the solar system, plate tectonics, turbulent fluids, economies, and population growth.”

Check out that link on the butterfly effect.

Effectively it lets you know that scientifically we understand that we can’t say what will happen, and should prepare for the absolute worst. When scientists say: “Oh, don’t worry, it’s only changing at the rate of x% per year which means that ….” they are spouting nonsense. Chaotic systems can go from one state to a complete different one with a slight change in initial conditions. A change of 0.01 degree Celsius can be the difference between an unusually warm summer and an ice age overnight - literally. And there is no way scientists can predict this.

This is why the Vedas, and Bhagavad-gita in particular tell us not to try to do things based on empirical research, but to live principle-centered lives governed by dharma, or revealed guiding principles that allow us to align ourselves with harmonic systems.

From an article quoted by Candidasa the other day:

Prior to the last decades, it was thought that the periods between glaciations and warmer times in North America, Europe, and North Asia were gradual.
…
(however) It turns out that the ice age versus temperate weather patterns weren’t part of a smooth and linear process, like a dimmer slider for an overhead light bulb. They are part of a delicately balanced teeter-totter, which can exist in one state or the other, but transits through the middle stage almost overnight. They more resemble a light switch, which is off as you gradually and slowly lift it, until it hits a mid-point threshold or “breakover point” where suddenly the state is flipped from off to on and the light comes on.

And now this, just in via Time magazine:

Climate observers announced a huge surprise yesterday at the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s annual conference, in St. Louis: the glaciers of Greenland, which carry ice from the interior out to the sea, have gone on a tear. They’re flowing, on average, about twice as fast as they were a decade ago — and even back then, says glacier expert Julian Dowdeswell, of the University of Cambridge, “I was telling my students that they were among the fastest-flowing glaciers on Earth.”

Whether it is due to human industry, accelerated by human industry, or a recurring historical natural process unrelated to human industry, the point is moot. Practically speaking: It’s here.

Here are a couple of funny videos about global warming, for your viewing pleasure:

One about George Bush by comedian Will Ferrell, and a lively song and dance routine about Exxon called “Toast the Earth”.

The focus of these types of exposition have been to say that politicians and industry have been ignoring and covering up their possible contribution to the situation by ignoring the situation itself.

The Exxon one wants to pin some blame on Exxon for it. I think that the time for that angle is behind us. It’s much more dangerous than we originally thought. From what the scientists are saying, it looks like it’s a naturally occurring phenomenon that repeats cyclicly. Right now, whether industry contributes to it or not is really irrelevant. The fact of the matter is that it is upon us.

I don’t want to sound like a doomsday prophet, but I’m with Kim Stanley Robinson on this one - we really do need to start packaging up human civilization to survive the long winter. It’s not about technology, because that will not survive. The industrial base of human society is about to cumble. It’s about knowledge and culture. As he put it: “All the knowledge of human society should be preserved in books that will last through the winter night”.

The Vedic knowledge is the body of knowledge of human civilisation that has survived these winter nights before. Transmitted by word of mouth across generations, it tells the history of the universe over millions of generations, recounting significant events to highlight the mission and purpose of this universe, and the human form of life.

Archaeological evidence is erased by the shifting sands and winds of time, but the Vedic knowledge, handed from one to another - parampara, travels over millennia to reach us now - perfectly preserved in essence if not in detail.

I read this today on Slashdot:

James Lovelock, the planetary scientist famous for his Gaia Theory, writes in today’s Independent of his belief that it is already too late to divert an environmental catastrophe which will see much of human civilisation destroyed. Fearing it too late to be green, he instead suggests communities plan for survival in a Mad Max type world with limited resources ruled by violent warlords. “We have to keep in mind the awesome pace of change and realise how little time is left to act, and then each community and nation must find the best use of the resources they have to sustain civilisation for as long as they can.” He suggests we should be writing a practical guidebook printed on long lasting paper containing “the basic accumulated scientific knowledge of humanity.”

I went to the video store last week to try to rent Mad Max: Beyond the Thunderdome, while I was thinking about the issues that I wrote about in my recent post on Global Warming. Unfortunately the movie is so old school that they don’t have it on DVD, only VHS.

Let me recall something that Srila Prabhupada said to Tamal Krishna Goswami, over 30 years ago: “The mission of this Krishna Consciousness movement is to be recorded in the annals of history as having saved the world in its darkest hour.”

On the one hand you can read news stories of impending environmental disaster and crisis conferences convened by national governments. On the other hand you can read about ever-growing markets and profits for industry and further development of superfluous consumer items, all touted as the “progress” of civilization. The pace of economic development proceeds unabated, even accelerating. First world nations such as the US are insatiable consumers and promiscuous producers, devouring energy and converted raw resources as processed goods at a phenomenal rate. Developing nations such as Iran demand access to the same levels of energy consumption that developed nations have.

It seems that no-one can see the contradiction, no-one can draw the link. No-one can give it up.

By averting the catastrophic apocalypse that humanity is calling upon itself, by rebuilding a sane human civilization on the basis of sustainable values, the Krishna Consciousness movement has a grave responsibility. This movement is responsible for the preservation and propagation of the Vedic knowledge that gives human beings the principles by which society can be organized for peaceful, sustainable, and spiritually progressive existence.

Jesus talked about the man who built his house on sand, and the man who built his house on rock, and how when the rain came, the house built on sand collapsed completely. As a civilisation, the global civilisation that was glorified recently by one commentator for having given Iraq free access to global markets, we are building our house on sand.

Individually, what are you building your house on?

What eternal, fundamental values undergird your personal lifestyle? How much of your identity is tied up in this culture that is rushing brashly and irresponsibly toward a precipice?

I know that most people are simply swept along with the prevailing currents and tides of society - but there are some among you who can see this, but feel powerless to do anything about it. You feel frustration in that you can see clearly where this is heading, but seem impotent to stop it. Know that this Krishna Consciousness movement exists, and that it is dedicated to stopping this madness on an individual and social level, and effecting a return to sanity.

Our strategy has two prongs: the formation of urban spiritual communities which provide a network of support and shelter from the hostile socio-economic forces that currently prey upon the increasingly vulnerable, alienated, and isolated inhabitants of modern cities, and the establishment of self-sufficient farming communities working on bio-dynamic principles of sustainability.

The entire program is guided by the timeless principles established by Krishna, explained by sages throughout history, and recorded in the oral tradition of the Vedas.

Join now, and help save the world!

In his seminal preface to the translation of Srimad Bhagavatam, Srila A.C. Bhaktivedanta Swami Prabhupada writes:

Human society, at the present moment, is not in the darkness of oblivion. It has made rapid progress in the field of material comforts, education and economic development throughout the entire world. But there is a pinprick somewhere in the social body at large, and therefore there are large-scale quarrels, even over less important issues. There is need of a clue as to how humanity can become one in peace, friendship and prosperity with a common cause. Śrīmad-Bhāgavatam will fill this need, for it is a cultural presentation for the respiritualization of the entire human society.

There are a number of different indices that indicate the growing problems faced by human society, and in fact the whole planet.

One of the most glaring and incontrovertible is the phenomenon of global warming. It’s becoming increasing hard to ignore the situation. The calls of “it’s a natural cycle”, and “it’s nothing to do with human activity”, always pretty far-fetched, are losing the little bit of credibility that they had, even with the most gullible of people. The question of “if” has now become one of “when” and “how“.

While the arguments about how to deal with climate change roll on, scientists in the difficult business of working out just how it will affect our future are sounding increasingly urgent warnings. (from news.com.au)

I’m on a training course downtown in Brisbane, Australia right now. At lunchtime I walked through King George Square, in the city center with Param, my wife, and Prahlad, our son. Param pointed out to me what was previously the fountain. It is now a sludge consisting of water logged bark. A sign advises that Brisbane is experiencing the worst drought in 100 years, and the fountain has been converted into a “Watersense” garden to preserve water supplies. As the sign goes on to explain, Brisbane is currently under Level 2 water restrictions. The Council website warns: ” As the dam levels drop, stronger restrictions will be put in place.”

The three dams that supply Brisbane’s water are at less than 35% of capacity. This has been the hottest year on record in Australian history.

The greenhouse effect, where heat is trapped in the Earth’s atmosphere by high levels of carbon dioxide, is caused by industrialization, especially the combustion of fuels for energy. Ironically, as the temperature rises in Australia, more people buy air conditioners. The waiting list for a major domestic goods retailer (Harvey Norman) for someone to perform the installation of their air conditioners is six months. Increased use of air conditioning causes greater consumption, and hence production, of electricity. Electricity in Australia is produced through burning coal. Burning coal produces more greenhouse gases, resulting in higher temperatures. Welcome to hell.

As I mentioned previously, a new concern in New Zealand are environmental refugees - people fleeing to New Zealand because their own environments have become uninhabitable. As things get worse in more places, demand will increase. The social structure and urban infrastructure of New Zealand cities, especially Auckland, is already under strain. A massive influx of displaced peoples will only make this worse. And New Zealand has its own environmental problems to deal with. According to a recent report, New Zealanders receive 40% more UV radiation than North Americans living at similar latitudes. This is due to ozone layer depletion, caused by the release of industrial gases. The situation is even worse here in Queensland, Australia.

Srila Prabhupada once remarked wryly:

We are not against technological advancement, even though it is suicidal.

If you look at the economic and sociological forces which are drivers for these problems, global warming / the greenhouse effect, and ozone depletion, the situation does indeed seem bleak. Analyzing them to expose the root cause reveals deep rooted practices and a prevalent lifestyle that people are simply not willing to give up, especially on the large scale that is needed in order to avert the impending disaster.

As Albert Einstein so perceptively observed:

No problem can be solved by the same level of consciousness that created it.

The world is crying out for leadership in this area.

I would like to reiterate a quote of Srila Prabhupada related in Tamal Krishna Goswami’s autobiography Servant of the Servant:

The mission of this Krishna Consciousness movement is to be recorded in the progress of history as having saved the world.

The Krishna Consciousness movement, the movement for a revolution in consciousness, a return to sanity, to an individual lifestyle and a social organization that remove the impulses in the individual that in their aggregation are causing our now globalized human civilization to slide closer and closer to an irredeemable disaster, is the only hope. It addresses the root cause of the problem: the fundamental misconception of the self as matter, the loss of consciousness of our intrinsic identity and our relationship with the universe, the loss of consciousness of our purpose in this universe, and indeed the purpose of the universe itself.

Life is not simply about living and trying to squeeze as much enjoyment out of life, out of other people, out of this body, out of objects, out of the environment, as possible. Life has a purpose - you were born with a purpose, and ultimately it is a spiritual purpose. It is related to that part of us that is alive, the persistent identity that experiences the different bodies from birth to childhood and on to adulthood. Without fulfilling our spiritual needs, without knowing our spiritual nature, our spiritual identity and relationship to the complete whole, we will never be able to be satisfied.

As the sage Canakya Pandit says:

There is not enough gold, grains, or women in this world to satisfy the desires of one man

When we have a civilization of such people, organized and with industrial capacity and advanced technology, the result is a disaster. Widespread war over resources, uncontrollable resource exploitation, and unbridled resource consumption with attendant pollution.

When we understand our identity and our purpose, and act on that platform, we are able to be satisfied, and the raging desire for “progress” and “growth” that is thinly disguised serial exploitation of people and products in a disposable society subsides.

Read our books: Bhagavad-gita, Srimad Bhagavatam. Talk to some of our people. Examine Krishna Consciousness for yourself with a critical and inquiring mind. We are looking for good men and women, who are willing to head up this crucial mission. Now is the hour of need. Who will step out of the crowd and give their life for the most worthy cause, and who will simply remain in pointless participation in the madness of so-called material progress, in pursuit of pleasure which always remains out of reach, until the body and the environment have been destroyed through that pursuit?

Krishna wants you, and the world needs you.

“Teach the science of Krishna Consciousness to everyone. On my order, become qualified as a teacher of real knowledge and save this land. ” - Sri Caitanya Mahaprabhu

One outcome of global warming could be a dramatic cooling of Britain and northern Europe.

Scientists now have evidence that changes are occurring in the Gulf Stream, the warm and powerful ocean current that tempers the western European climate.

Without the influence of the Gulf Stream and its two northern branches, the North Atlantic Drift and the Canary Current, the weather in Britain could be more like that of Siberia, which shares the same latitude.

CNN.com - Changes in Gulf Stream could chill Europe - May 10, 2005

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — Studies looking at the oceans and melting Arctic ice leave no room for doubt that it is getting warmer, people are to blame, and the weather is going to suffer, climate experts have said.

New computer models that look at ocean temperatures instead of the atmosphere show the clearest signal yet that global warming is well under way, Tim Barnett of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography said.

Speaking at an annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Barnett said climate models based on air temperatures are weak because most of the evidence for global warming is not even there.

“The real place to look is in the ocean,” Barnett told a news conference.
(more…)

CHACALTAYA GLACIER, Bolivia (AP) — Up and down the icy spine of South America, the glaciers are melting, the white mantle of the Andes Mountains washing away at an ever faster rate.

“Look. You can see. Chacaltaya has split in two,” scientist Edson Ramirez said as he led a visitor up toward a once-grand ice flow high in the thin air of the Bolivian cordillera.
(more…)

The risks of global warming are “more serious than previously thought”, concluded a major international climate conference on Thursday.

“Major investment is needed now in both mitigation and adaptation,” stresses the preliminary report, summarising results presented at the conference, called Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, in Exeter, UK.

The impacts of global warming discussed at the meeting sounded like a roll call of disasters. Topics ranged from the collapse of ice sheets in Antarctica to the irreversible melting of the Greenland ice caps; from droughts in Africa to floods in Japan. And fears were also raised over the rapidly changing current-patterns in acidifying ocean .

But the scientists shied away from stating that such climate change was “dangerous”. “That’s a value judgement to be made by policy makers,” said Bert Metz, from the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and one of the report’s authors.

To help policy makers decide where to draw the danger line, the report echoed some researchers’ calls to establish “critical thresholds that we should aim not to cross”.

For example, the report drew attention to the results of Jason Lowe, from the Hadley Centre in Exeter. He says that local warming of more than 2.7�C, associated with global warming of only 1.5�C, could trigger Greenland’s ice sheet to start contracting.
Dramatic cuts

Collating results from published studies indicated that damage increases as the world warms by between 1�C and 3�C, while serious risk of large scale damage becomes likely above 3�C, the report said. This lends some support to the European Union’s target of keeping global warming to under 2�C by 2050. Other presentations at the meeting suggested that only with dramatic emissions cuts can such a goal be achieved.

The report also warned that more research was needed into the effects climate change could have on the frequency of extreme natural events. It cited the European heat wave of 2003 - during which thousands of people died - as an example of an extreme event made more likely by global warming.

The last substantial review of climate change was conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2001. But now “there is greater clarity and reduced uncertainty about the impacts of climate change”, says the new report.

The meeting was opened by Margaret Beckett, the UK’s Secretary of State for the Environment, who said on Thursday: “I think this conference will be seen as a turning point in the perception of climate change. It underlines the need for the international community to take urgent action to combat climate change.”

New Scientist Breaking News - Alarm bells ring louder over climate change

The massive west Antarctic ice sheet, previously assumed to be stable, is starting to collapse, scientists warned on Tuesday.

Antarctica contains more than 90% of the world’s ice, and the loss of any significant part of it would cause a substantial sea level rise. Scientists used to view Antarctica as a “slumbering giant”, said Chris Rapley, from the British Antarctic Survey, but now he sees it as an “awakened giant”.

Rapley presented measurements of the ice sheet at a major climate conference in Exeter, UK. Glaciers on the Antarctic peninsula, which protrudes from the continent to the north, were already known to be retreating. But the data Rapley presented show that glaciers within the much larger west Antarctic Ice sheet are also starting to disappear.

If the ice on the peninsula melts entirely it will raise global sea levels by 0.3 metres, and the west Antarctic ice sheet contains enough water to contribute metres more. The last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, published in 2001, said that collapse of this ice sheet was unlikely during the 21st century. That may now need to be reassessed, Rapley warned.
Cork from a bottle

Changes on the peninsula, where 75% of the 400 mountain glaciers are in retreat, have provided new insights into the ways that ice sheets may disintegrate.

In March 2002, a huge floating ice shelf known as Larsen B shattered into icebergs. This turned out to have an effect akin to pulling a cork from a bottle. With Larsen B no longer impeding movement, the ice floes that fed the shelf began moving faster towards the sea and started to thin. The finding took scientists by surprise when revealed in September 2004 and now modellers are now working to include such mechanisms in their predictions.

Climate records derived from the analysis of sediments show that ice shelves off the peninsula have been absent in several earlier eras, when natural variability warmed the world. But the break-up is affecting ice closer to the pole than ever recorded, said Rapley. “It’s like the Heineken effect,” he said, referring to the beer adverts that claim Heineken “reaches the parts other beers cannot reach”.

Indications that climate change may be affecting the west Antarctic ice sheet comes from three glaciers, including Pine Island and Thwaites. Data reveal they are losing more ice - mainly through the calving of icebergs - than is being replaced by snowfall. According to a preliminary analysis, the difference between the mass lost and mass replaced is about 60%.

Whether the loss of mass by the glaciers is due to natural variation or is caused by human-influenced warming of the oceans is not known for sure. Scientists are now making more field measurements to assess the causes, but warming is a likely culprit, said Rapley: “The fact that three of them are simultaneously accelerating suggests that is the case.” The melting of these three glaciers alone is contributing an estimated 0.24 millimetres per year to sea level.

New Scientist Breaking News - Antarctic ice sheet is an ‘awakened giant’

Global warming is approaching the critical point of no return, after which widespread drought, crop failure and rising sea-levels would be irreversible, an international climate change task force warned Monday.

According to the report, urgent action is needed to stop the global average temperature rising by 2 degrees Celsius above the level in 1750 — the approximate start of the Industrial Revolution when mankind first started significantly polluting the atmosphere with carbon dioxide.

Beyond a 2 degrees rise, “the risks to human societies and ecosystems grow significantly” the report said, adding there would be a risk of “abrupt, accelerated, or runaway climate change.”

It warned of “climatic tipping points” such as the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets melting and the Gulf Stream shutting down.

No accurate temperature readings were available for 1750, the report said, but since 1860, global average temperature had risen by 0.8 percent to 15 degrees Celsius.

The two degrees rise could be avoided by keeping the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere below 400 parts per million (ppm). Current concentrations of 379 ppm “are likely to rise above 400 ppm in coming decades and could rise far higher under a business-as-usual scenario,” the report warned.

Read CNN’s coverage: CNN.com - Report: Global warming approaching critical point - Jan 24, 2005

Download the report itself here

Much to their surprise, scientists have found that less sunlight has been reaching the earth’s surface in recent decades. The sun isn’t going dark; rather clouds, air pollution and aerosols are getting in the way. Researchers are learning that the phenomenon can interact with global warming in ways that had not been appreciated.

“This is something that people haven’t been aware of,” says Shabtai Cohen of the Institute of Soil, Water and Environmental Sciences in Bet Dagan, Israel. “And it’s taken a long time to gain supporters in the scientific world.” Cohen’s colleague Gerald Stanhill first published his solar dimming results 15 years ago.

Science & Technology at Scientific American.com: The Darkening Earth — [ CLIMATE ] — Less sun at the Earth’s surface complicates climate models

Increased flows of Russian rivers into the Arctic Ocean are due to man-made greenhouse gases and might indicate changing global rainfall patterns, according to a report by leading British climate scientists.

The team at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research - part of the British Meteorological Office - said computer models showed that the cause was human activity and predicted that things would get worse. …

It comes just four weeks before the Kyoto climate change treaty enters into force, aimed at curbing the emissions of the main greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.

Critics say the treaty is too late and inadequate to tackle the looming global climate crisis.

They note the world’s worst polluter, the United States, has refused to sign up arguing human activities do not contribute to climate change which is a natural phenomenon.

Read the full article: here

Soot mostly from diesel engines is blocking snow and ice from reflecting sunlight, which is contributing to “near worldwide melting of ice” and as much as a quarter of all observed global warming, top NASA scientists say.

The findings about the snow and ice albedos - their power to reflect light falling on the surface - raise new questions about human-caused climate change from the Arctic to the Alps.

“We suggest that soot is a more all-around ‘bad actor’ than has been appreciated” NASA scientists James Hansen and Larissa Nazarenko wrote in a paper published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
MSNBC - Scientists: Diesel soot abets global warming

A Nepalese Sherpa fears his mountain valley will be flooded by melting glacier runoff high in the Himalayas. A Fiji islander frets about rising sea levels, while villagers cope with the destruction of mangrove swamps in India.

As scientists debate whether global warming is affecting Earth, “climate witnesses” told a U.N. environmental conference Friday they are already feeling the heat of the changing weather patterns they say are drastically affecting the way of life from the Himalayas to the South Pacific.

Read the full article at Common Dreams Newscenter

Grim climate change scenario for Asia

“The weather predictions for Asia in 2050 read like a script from a doomsday movie and many climatologists and green groups fear they will come true unless there is a concerted global effort to rein in greenhouse gas emissions.

In the decades to come Asia, home to more than half the world’s 6.3 billion people, will lurch from one climate extreme to another, with impoverished farmers battling droughts, floods, disease, food shortages and rising sea levels. ”

Read the article

Boston.com / News / World / Europe / Arctic nations agree to fight glacial melting

“More than 300 scientists concluded after four years of study that melting sea ice, abrupt weather changes, and rising temperatures in northern latitudes have far outpaced climate change in other regions over the past few decades”

Read the article

Article: Kyoto Protocol gets the green light | New Scientist
Russia formally ratified the Kyoto Protocol - aimed at curbing global greenhouse gas emissions - on Thursday. In doing so, it triggered a 90-day countdown to bring the international climate treaty into force.

I checked Umart this morning for a price for another hard drive for the World Sankirtan.Net server. I am going to configure it with RAID 1, which means all data gets written to two drives instead of just one, in case one of them goes belly up (the one I have in there at the moment is an old 10GB one that I found lying around).

Actually the whole machine is made of rejected parts that were unusable for other purposes. A 266MHz Intel Pentium II with 140MB RAM. No good for Windows XP, but it rocks as a server running Fedora Core 2, Red Hat’s free Linux operating system.
(more…)